When will we have self-driving cars? That’s difficult to say for sure, but Elon Musk’s latest tweet, gives us a timeline to base our expectations upon.
Responding to a post from George Hotz who runs Comma, also in the autonomous vehicle game, Musk confirmed that he is confident that we’ll see Tesla vehicles driving (using FSD) at a level that is far safer than humans by the end of 2021.
Musk provided the caveat around regulation, which is the great unknown. Armed with a fist full of evidence to provide that Tesla vehicles are safer than humans should present an incredibly compelling case, but those creating legislation don’t always follow logic.
As for the $10K bet that we’ll reach full level 5 autonomy, where the driver is not responsible for the car, Musk decided to leave that well alone.
Hutz has since replied to Elon’s post, saying he’ll buy a Model 3 with FSD. It makes lots of sense for a company working on autonomous driving, to keep an eye on the competition. When that competition is the market leader, that makes even more sense.
As we know from commitments in the past, Autonomy was originally planned to be delivered in 2019, then 2020, now 2021. With a staggered rollout around the world, its likely many parts of the world will not see this until 2022.
The rollout and expansion of the FSD beta program will be very telling in terms of how far along Tes